Well, I was wrong. A month or so ago, I warned that what we’re going through is a black swan event, that it would have an economic impact, and we as business owners needed to be braced. Then, as things got even worse, I decided this was a double black swan—a crisis without good leadership to carry us through to the other side. And it […]
Today was the day that it hit me, not the scope of the disaster we’re all living through, but the emotions of it. I am just deeply tired and it’s an emotional tired. I’m going through, dealing with the uncertainty, and helping others through it as well, but this is a really big deal for all of us, even if we don’t have a sick […]
One of our jobs as small business owners is to predict the future. (And writers, you are small business owners, whether you like that characterization or not.) We have to do forecasting, weeks, months and even years out. The good news is that anyone who manages a household has a handle on how to do some of this. You know what your paycheck is, what […]
Sometime in the middle of this very long week, I posted a note on Facebook: If 2020 were a novel, I would be skipping to the end to see how all these storylines play out. Because, seriously, you can’t make this stuff up. Or as comedian Stephen Colbert said this week (and I paraphrase), What I wouldn’t give for a dull moment. I write this […]
Well, here we go again. That’s my reaction, after a brief few hours of panic, about the coronavirus. (Yes, I know it’s called officially called COVID-19, and I know why it’s called that, because I do read the science. But because everyone else is calling it The coronavirus, we will too.) Why am I being blasé? I’m actually not. I’ve just lived long enough to […]
To do modeling for the next year of your business, you need to be as clear-eyed as possible. You should research trends for your business for similar economic times, if you can.
Then you figure out as best you can what your future will be.
Here’s how you do it.
In August, I noted a slowdown in all of our businesses, from the retail stores we own to the books we sell online to the willingness of people to sign up for online workshops.
I figured that this 2016 election was so vituperative and consumers were so spooked, they weren’t spending money, and this was unusual. So I investigated. What I discovered was very different from my expectations.